{"slug":"business-formation-by-state","title":"Business formation by state, trailing twelve months","unit":"applications","generated_at":"2026-08-24T22:25:42+00:00","source":{"tier":"A","producer":"U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics","via":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)","url":"https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/","via_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release?rid=443","retrieved_at":"2026-08-24T22:25:42+00:00","license":"U.S. Government work, public domain"},"upstream":["BABATOTALNSAAL","BABATOTALNSAAK","BABATOTALNSAAZ","BABATOTALNSAAR","BABATOTALNSACA","BABATOTALNSACO","BABATOTALNSACT","BABATOTALNSADE","BABATOTALNSADC","BABATOTALNSAFL","BABATOTALNSAGA","BABATOTALNSAHI","BABATOTALNSAID","BABATOTALNSAIL","BABATOTALNSAIN","BABATOTALNSAIA","BABATOTALNSAKS","BABATOTALNSAKY","BABATOTALNSALA","BABATOTALNSAME","BABATOTALNSAMD","BABATOTALNSAMA","BABATOTALNSAMI","BABATOTALNSAMN","BABATOTALNSAMS","BABATOTALNSAMO","BABATOTALNSAMT","BABATOTALNSANE","BABATOTALNSANV","BABATOTALNSANH","BABATOTALNSANJ","BABATOTALNSANM","BABATOTALNSANY","BABATOTALNSANC","BABATOTALNSAND","BABATOTALNSAOH","BABATOTALNSAOK","BABATOTALNSAOR","BABATOTALNSAPA","BABATOTALNSARI","BABATOTALNSASC","BABATOTALNSASD","BABATOTALNSATN","BABATOTALNSATX","BABATOTALNSAUT","BABATOTALNSAVT","BABATOTALNSAVA","BABATOTALNSAWA","BABATOTALNSAWV","BABATOTALNSAWI","BABATOTALNSAWY","BAHBATOTALNSAAL","BAHBATOTALNSAAK","BAHBATOTALNSAAZ","BAHBATOTALNSAAR","BAHBATOTALNSACA","BAHBATOTALNSACO","BAHBATOTALNSACT","BAHBATOTALNSADE","BAHBATOTALNSADC","BAHBATOTALNSAFL","BAHBATOTALNSAGA","BAHBATOTALNSAHI","BAHBATOTALNSAID","BAHBATOTALNSAIL","BAHBATOTALNSAIN","BAHBATOTALNSAIA","BAHBATOTALNSAKS","BAHBATOTALNSAKY","BAHBATOTALNSALA","BAHBATOTALNSAME","BAHBATOTALNSAMD","BAHBATOTALNSAMA","BAHBATOTALNSAMI","BAHBATOTALNSAMN","BAHBATOTALNSAMS","BAHBATOTALNSAMO","BAHBATOTALNSAMT","BAHBATOTALNSANE","BAHBATOTALNSANV","BAHBATOTALNSANH","BAHBATOTALNSANJ","BAHBATOTALNSANM","BAHBATOTALNSANY","BAHBATOTALNSANC","BAHBATOTALNSAND","BAHBATOTALNSAOH","BAHBATOTALNSAOK","BAHBATOTALNSAOR","BAHBATOTALNSAPA","BAHBATOTALNSARI","BAHBATOTALNSASC","BAHBATOTALNSASD","BAHBATOTALNSATN","BAHBATOTALNSATX","BAHBATOTALNSAUT","BAHBATOTALNSAVT","BAHBATOTALNSAVA","BAHBATOTALNSAWA","BAHBATOTALNSAWV","BAHBATOTALNSAWI","BAHBATOTALNSAWY","BFBF4QTOTALNSAAL","BFBF4QTOTALNSAAK","BFBF4QTOTALNSAAZ","BFBF4QTOTALNSAAR","BFBF4QTOTALNSACA","BFBF4QTOTALNSACO","BFBF4QTOTALNSACT","BFBF4QTOTALNSADE","BFBF4QTOTALNSADC","BFBF4QTOTALNSAFL","BFBF4QTOTALNSAGA","BFBF4QTOTALNSAHI","BFBF4QTOTALNSAID","BFBF4QTOTALNSAIL","BFBF4QTOTALNSAIN","BFBF4QTOTALNSAIA","BFBF4QTOTALNSAKS","BFBF4QTOTALNSAKY","BFBF4QTOTALNSALA","BFBF4QTOTALNSAME","BFBF4QTOTALNSAMD","BFBF4QTOTALNSAMA","BFBF4QTOTALNSAMI","BFBF4QTOTALNSAMN","BFBF4QTOTALNSAMS","BFBF4QTOTALNSAMO","BFBF4QTOTALNSAMT","BFBF4QTOTALNSANE","BFBF4QTOTALNSANV","BFBF4QTOTALNSANH","BFBF4QTOTALNSANJ","BFBF4QTOTALNSANM","BFBF4QTOTALNSANY","BFBF4QTOTALNSANC","BFBF4QTOTALNSAND","BFBF4QTOTALNSAOH","BFBF4QTOTALNSAOK","BFBF4QTOTALNSAOR","BFBF4QTOTALNSAPA","BFBF4QTOTALNSARI","BFBF4QTOTALNSASC","BFBF4QTOTALNSASD","BFBF4QTOTALNSATN","BFBF4QTOTALNSATX","BFBF4QTOTALNSAUT","BFBF4QTOTALNSAVT","BFBF4QTOTALNSAVA","BFBF4QTOTALNSAWA","BFBF4QTOTALNSAWV","BFBF4QTOTALNSAWI","BFBF4QTOTALNSAWY","ALPOP","AKPOP","AZPOP","ARPOP","CAPOP","COPOP","CTPOP","DEPOP","DCPOP","FLPOP","GAPOP","HIPOP","IDPOP","ILPOP","INPOP","IAPOP","KSPOP","KYPOP","LAPOP","MEPOP","MDPOP","MAPOP","MIPOP","MNPOP","MSPOP","MOPOP","MTPOP","NEPOP","NVPOP","NHPOP","NJPOP","NMPOP","NYPOP","NCPOP","NDPOP","OHPOP","OKPOP","ORPOP","PAPOP","RIPOP","SCPOP","SDPOP","TNPOP","TXPOP","UTPOP","VTPOP","VAPOP","WAPOP","WVPOP","WIPOP","WYPOP"],"transform":"Trailing 12 months ending 2026-07 summed from not-seasonally-adjusted monthly counts, compared with the same 12 calendar months ending 2019-07. Per-capita rates use the latest annual state population estimate. High-propensity share is high-propensity applications divided by total applications in the same window.","verification":{"ok":true,"checks":[{"name":"coverage_aligned","passed":true,"detail":"all 51 state application series end 2026-07-01"},{"name":"coverage_aligned","passed":true,"detail":"all 51 state formation series end 2022-12-01"},{"name":"completeness","passed":true,"detail":"51 of 51 states in the applications series"},{"name":"completeness","passed":true,"detail":"51 of 51 states in the high-propensity series"},{"name":"window_stability","passed":true,"detail":"claim +76.9%; sliding both windows -9..+9 months gives +58.7% to +76.9% (spread 18.1pp, 0.24x the claim)"},{"name":"base_effect","passed":true,"detail":"no month in either window exceeds robust z=3.5; claim +76.9%"},{"name":"named_states_stable","passed":true,"detail":"every state the story ranks in its top ten survives the window-stability test"},{"name":"base_effect_state_census","passed":true,"detail":"0 of 51 states carry a materially anomalous month; each is flagged on its row"},{"name":"same_season","passed":true,"detail":"windows end 2026-07 and 2019-07"},{"name":"denominator","passed":true,"detail":"high-propensity applications is a subset of total applications"},{"name":"outlier_dependence","passed":true,"detail":"rho=-0.553; dropping WY gives rho=-0.534"},{"name":"formation_rate_is_a_rate","passed":true,"detail":"every state's measured formation rate lies between 0 and 100% of its own application cohort"},{"name":"formations_are_measured_not_projected","passed":true,"detail":"formations use the measured series (BFBF4Q), which ends 2022-12; the spliced series that runs to the present is a projection after 2022-12 and is not used"}]},"meta":{"latest_month":"2026-07","base_month":"2019-07","window_months":12,"national_applications":6141390,"national_high_propensity":1733500,"national_base":3472591,"national_growth_pct":76.9,"national_high_propensity_share_pct":28.2,"spearman_growth_vs_hp_share":-0.553,"formation_cohort_month":"2022-12","national_formations_measured":296531,"national_formation_cohort_applications":5062563,"national_formation_rate_pct":5.9,"states_doubled":8,"base_effect_tested_states":51,"fragile_states":["WA","AK","SD","VT","RI","ND"],"national_sensitivity":{"claim_pct":76.9,"low_pct":58.7,"high_pct":76.9,"spread_pp":18.1,"relative_spread":0.24,"sign_flips":false,"shifts_months":[-9,-6,-3,0]}},"notes":["An application is an application for an Employer Identification Number, not a business. Census classifies a subset as high-propensity, meaning it carries the characteristics that historically predict becoming an employer.","Counts are not seasonally adjusted, which is why both windows end in the same calendar month.","The formation rate is a measured cohort: of applications filed in the twelve months to 2022-12, the share that became businesses with payroll within four quarters. Census indexes formations by the application period, so no lag adjustment is needed, but four quarters must have elapsed, which is why this figure is dated earlier than the application counts beside it.","The projected and spliced formation series that run to the present are deliberately not used. Everything in them after December 2022 is a model output."],"row_count":51,"rows":[{"state":"WY","name":"Wyoming","applications":85212,"applications_base":19090,"growth_pct":346.4,"high_propensity":20623,"high_propensity_share_pct":24.2,"formations_measured":1355,"formations_cohort_applications":45355,"formation_rate_pct":3,"formation_cohort_month":"2022-12","applications_per_1k":144.7,"high_propensity_per_1k":35,"population_k":589,"sensitivity":{"claim_pct":346.4,"low_pct":272.1,"high_pct":346.4,"spread_pp":74.3,"relative_spread":0.21,"sign_flips":false,"shifts_months":[-9,-6,-3,0]},"fragile":false},{"state":"NM","name":"New 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