{"slug":"business-weather-metros","title":"DFX Business Weather: temperature and momentum for 25 US metros","unit":"index 0-100","generated_at":"2026-08-25T01:01:38+00:00","source":{"tier":"A","producer":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (employment, unemployment, labour force) and U.S. Census Bureau (building permits)","via":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)","url":"https://www.bls.gov/sae/","via_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/","retrieved_at":"2026-08-25T01:01:38+00:00","license":"U.S. Government work, public domain"},"upstream":["SMS25144600000000001","LAUMT251446000000003","BOST625BPPRIV","LAUMT251446000000006","NEWY636NA","NEWY636URN","NEWY636BPPRIV","NEWY636LFN","SMS06310800000000001","LOSA106URN","LOSA106BPPRIV","LOSA106LFN","SANF806NA","SANF806URN","SANF806BPPRIV","SANF806LFN","SANJ906NA","SANJ906URN","SANJ906BPPRIV","SANJ906LFN","SAND706NA","SAND706URN","SAND706BPPRIV","SAND706LFN","SEAT653NA","SEAT653URN","SEAT653BPPRIV","SEAT653LFN","PORT941NA","PORT941URN","PORT941BPPRIV","PORT941LFN","DENV708NA","DENV708URN","DENV708BPPRIV","DENV708LFN","SALT649NAN","SALT649URN","SALT649BPPRIV","SALT649LFN","PHOE004NA","PHOE004URN","PHOE004BPPRIV","PHOE004LFN","AUST448NA","AUST448URN","AUST448BPPRIV","AUST448LFN","DALL148NA","DALL148URN","DALL148BPPRIV","DALL148LFN","HOUS448NA","HOUS448URN","HOUS448BPPRIV","HOUS448LFN","SMS12331000000000026","MIAM112URN","MIAM112BPPRIV","MIAM112LFN","TAMP312NA","TAMP312URN","TAMP312BPPRIV","TAMP312LFN","ATLA013NA","ATLA013URN","ATLA013BPPRIV","ATLA013LFN","CHAR737NA","CHAR737URN","CHAR737BPPRIV","CHAR737LFN","RALE537NAN","RALE537URN","RALE537BPPRIV","RALE537LFN","NASH947NA","NASH947URN","NASH947BPPRIV","NASH947LFN","CHIC917NA","CHIC917URN","CHIC917BPPRIV","CHIC917LFN","MINN427NA","MINN427URN","MINN427BPPRIV","MINN427LFN","DETR826NA","DETR826URN","DETR826BPPRIV","DETR826LFN","PHIL942NA","PHIL942URN","PHIL942BPPRIV","PHIL942LFN","WASH911NA","WASH911URN","WASH911BPPRIV","WASH911LFN"],"transform":"For each metro, four monthly public series are scored as a percentile of that metro's own trailing 120-month history, using only observations available at the scoring month. Unemployment is inverted. Permits are smoothed on a three-month trailing mean before scoring. The temperature is the weighted mean of the available signals (employment 40%, unemployment 25%, permits 20%, labor_force 15%), renormalised over what is present. Momentum is the change in temperature over 3 months. Confidence combines coverage, recency and how far the signals disagree. Model version 1.0.0.","verification":{"ok":true,"checks":[{"name":"completeness","passed":true,"detail":"25 of 25 metros scored"},{"name":"all_feeds_alive","passed":true,"detail":"100 series checked; 100 live, 0 current, 0 delayed, none offline"},{"name":"every_metro_has_a_temperature","passed":true,"detail":"25 of 25 metros produced a score"},{"name":"temperature_in_range","passed":true,"detail":"every temperature lies in 0..100 by construction"},{"name":"model_discriminates","passed":true,"detail":"cross-metro standard deviation is 13.7 points, so the model separates markets"},{"name":"backtested","passed":true,"detail":"backtest ran on 749 metro-months across 30 months; verdict: descriptive only; no forward-looking claim is published"},{"name":"no_forward_claims_without_evidence","passed":true,"detail":"the dataset carries supports_forward_looking_claims=False; the site reads that flag rather than asserting an outlook"}]},"meta":{"model_version":"1.0.0","model_changelog":[["1.0.0","2026-08-25","First public model. Percentile-of-own-history temperature, trailing-quarter momentum, coverage/recency/agreement confidence."]],"scored_at":"2026-07","weights":{"employment":0.4,"unemployment":0.25,"permits":0.2,"labor_force":0.15},"baseline_months":120,"momentum_months":3,"metros":25,"hottest":"Raleigh","coldest":"San 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only; no forward-looking claim is published"}},"notes":["A temperature is a percentile of a metro's own history, not a ranking against other metros. 50 means normal for that place. A large metro and a small one can both be hot, and neither number says which is bigger.","Metro definitions follow the current OMB delineations. Boston is reported on the Boston-Cambridge-Newton MSA; the older Boston-Cambridge-Nashua NECTA series was discontinued in December 2024 and is deliberately not used.","Building permits are residential. They are the best monthly development signal published for every metro, and they are not a measure of commercial construction.","This is a description of current conditions. Whether it carries any forward-looking information is tested on every build and reported in meta.backtest."],"row_count":25,"rows":[{"slug":"raleigh","label":"Raleigh","msa":"Raleigh-Cary, 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