3.1x elevated pattern: launches its first private fund.
Historical cohort rate 3.5% vs 0.7% baseline within 12 months. A rate for the pattern, not a probability for this entity.
Window 2026-09-25 to 2027-09-25, as of 2026-09-25
Firm AUM band, Form ADV Item 5.F (firm size, not the size of a first fund): $25B to $50B
Confidence: signal moderate, timing moderate, outcome low, identity high, magnitude high.
- DerivedIts latest Form ADV (2026-07-29) says it charges performance-based fees but it reports no private fund.
Decision maker identified; on file: professional email, firm phone.