Why 91
Each signal is scored as a percentile of Raleigh’s own history, so 50 is normal for this market rather than average for the country. The temperature is the weighted mean of the four.
| Signal | Percentile | Weight | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|
| EmploymentTotal nonfarm payrolls in the metro, monthly | 98 | 40% | 784.12026-07 |
| UnemploymentinvertedMetro unemployment rate, inverted so lower is hotter | 76 | 25% | 3.12026-06 |
| Building permitsNew private housing units authorised, three-month mean | 95 | 20% | 1,989.32026-06 |
| Labour forcePeople working or looking for work in the metro | 93 | 15% | 862,4672026-06 |
Confidence is high. All four signals present, current, and agreeing.
What moved it -0.8
Over 3 months, the change in temperature came from these signals, as a share of all movement.
- Building permits43%+2.3
- Unemployment42%-2.3
- Employment13%-0.7
- Labour force2%-0.1
Pushing up: building permits. Pulling down: unemployment, employment, labour force.
Against the other markets
What this does not tell you
Tested against what happened next, this describes conditions now and does not predict them. It is published as a description, not a forecast.
The score is a percentile of this market against itself, so it says nothing about size: a hot small metro and a warm large one are not comparable in dollars. Building permits are residential, which is the only development series published monthly for every metro and is not a measure of commercial construction.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (employment, unemployment, labour force) and U.S. Census Bureau (building permits), via Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Retrieved August 25, 2026. Analysis by DFX Intelligence.