Why 61
Each signal is scored as a percentile of Chicago’s own history, so 50 is normal for this market rather than average for the country. The temperature is the weighted mean of the four.
| Signal | Percentile | Weight | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|
| EmploymentTotal nonfarm payrolls in the metro, monthly | 91 | 40% | 4,754.22026-07 |
| UnemploymentinvertedMetro unemployment rate, inverted so lower is hotter | 25 | 25% | 5.32026-06 |
| Building permitsNew private housing units authorised, three-month mean | 30 | 20% | 1,2462026-06 |
| Labour forcePeople working or looking for work in the metro | 80 | 15% | 4,982,4052026-06 |
Confidence is medium. Signals present but partly disagreeing or slightly delayed.
What moved it -10.1
Over 3 months, the change in temperature came from these signals, as a share of all movement.
- Unemployment32%-4.9
- Building permits31%-4.8
- Employment20%-3.0
- Labour force17%+2.6
Pushing up: labour force. Pulling down: unemployment, building permits, employment.
Against the other markets
What this does not tell you
Tested against what happened next, this describes conditions now and does not predict them. It is published as a description, not a forecast.
The score is a percentile of this market against itself, so it says nothing about size: a hot small metro and a warm large one are not comparable in dollars. Building permits are residential, which is the only development series published monthly for every metro and is not a measure of commercial construction.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (employment, unemployment, labour force) and U.S. Census Bureau (building permits), via Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Retrieved August 25, 2026. Analysis by DFX Intelligence.