Why 34
Each signal is scored as a percentile of San Francisco’s own history, so 50 is normal for this market rather than average for the country. The temperature is the weighted mean of the four.
| Signal | Percentile | Weight | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|
| EmploymentTotal nonfarm payrolls in the metro, monthly | 42 | 40% | 2,424.12026-07 |
| UnemploymentinvertedMetro unemployment rate, inverted so lower is hotter | 30 | 25% | 4.22026-06 |
| Building permitsNew private housing units authorised, three-month mean | 40 | 20% | 8182026-06 |
| Labour forcePeople working or looking for work in the metro | 10 | 15% | 2,446,9062026-06 |
Confidence is high. All four signals present, current, and agreeing.
What moved it -2.1
Over 3 months, the change in temperature came from these signals, as a share of all movement.
- Building permits42%+5.7
- Unemployment29%-3.9
- Employment27%-3.6
- Labour force2%-0.2
Pushing up: building permits. Pulling down: unemployment, employment, labour force.
Against the other markets
What this does not tell you
Tested against what happened next, this describes conditions now and does not predict them. It is published as a description, not a forecast.
The score is a percentile of this market against itself, so it says nothing about size: a hot small metro and a warm large one are not comparable in dollars. Building permits are residential, which is the only development series published monthly for every metro and is not a measure of commercial construction.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (employment, unemployment, labour force) and U.S. Census Bureau (building permits), via Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Retrieved August 25, 2026. Analysis by DFX Intelligence.