Ownership changes and succession markers on the companies you target.
Acquisition research for independent sponsors, PE firms and strategic acquirers: filed ownership changes, succession markers and distress filings from many sources, gathered into one brief per target. The markers were tested against later sales and did not forecast them, so this is research, not a sale forecast.
Six signal categories. One fused intelligence layer.
Every scan ingests data across six distinct signal categories. Individually suggestive - together, they form a conviction-grade picture of sell-side readiness.
Ownership Transition
Founder aging, generational transfer, partner disputes, estate planning signals. Identifies businesses approaching natural ownership inflection points.
Financial Distress
Declining revenue, credit deterioration, covenant pressure, litigation exposure. Surfaces companies under financial strain that may need a capital event.
Growth Stall
Flat revenue, market saturation, talent attrition, slowing hiring. Detects companies that have plateaued and may be open to strategic alternatives.
Strategic Misalignment
Non-core divisions, corporate refocusing, post-merger orphans. Finds assets trapped inside organizations that no longer prioritize them.
Behavioral Signals
CFO hiring, advisor engagement, website changes, leadership departures: the changes a buyer would want to know about. DFX has not measured how far ahead of a sale any of them appears.
Market Timing
Sector M&A cycles, interest rate windows, regulatory shifts, buyer appetite surges. Identifies macro conditions that compress seller timelines.
Quantified conviction. Not gut feel.
Every target is scored across five independent dimensions, then fused into a single composite Off-Market Opportunity Score with a verdict on how much evidence was found.
Exit Marker Score
0 - 100How many ownership, succession and financial markers the scan found for this company, and how strong each is. A summary of evidence, not a probability: when DFX replayed a comparable sale score against later sales it did no better than chance (0.94x), so no score here is a sale forecast.
Distress Pressure Score
0 - 100Degree of financial or operational pressure forcing a transaction. Higher scores indicate urgency - bankruptcy risk, covenant breaches, or cash flow deterioration.
Timing Score
0 - 100How immediate is the opportunity window? Factors in advisor engagement, process indicators, and macro timing to estimate time-to-market.
Buyer Fit Score
0 - 100Relevance of the target to your specific acquisition criteria - sector, size, geography, and strategic fit. Customized per scan configuration.
Access Score
0 - 100Ease of outreach and likelihood of engagement. Considers intermediary presence, ownership accessibility, and competitive dynamics around the target.
DFX Off-Market Opportunity Score
A weighted blend of the five dimensions into a single 0-100 composite. The weights are set by judgement, not fitted to deal outcomes, and the composite is not a probability of a sale. Every target receives a score and a verdict tier that say how much evidence was found.
Nine sources. One fused signal.
We ingest from public records, financial filings, employment data, court systems, corporate registries, and behavioral indicators. Entity resolution stitches it all together.
SEC EDGAR
Ownership changes, Form D filings, insider transactions, beneficial ownership reports
CourtListener
Litigation filings, bankruptcy proceedings, distress indicators, judgments
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment trends, mass layoff events, QCEW data, wage trajectory
Federal Reserve
Credit conditions, interest rate environment, lending standards, macro outlook
OpenCorporates
Entity data, officer changes, ownership structure, subsidiary mapping
Job Boards
Hiring velocity, CFO/CRO searches, headcount changes, role pattern analysis
GNews
M&A rumors, leadership changes, strategic reviews, sector deal flow
IRS 990
Nonprofit financials, board turnover, compensation shifts, revenue trajectory
Website Analysis
Site staleness, team page changes, digital presence decay, technology signals
Pipeline-ready intelligence.
Not a data dump. A structured intelligence report designed for deal teams - scored targets, signal breakdowns, and a clear action plan you can execute on immediately.
IC-memo style overview with thesis, key findings, and recommended actions.
Ranked list of highest-opportunity targets with composite scores and individual signal breakdowns.
Visual matrix showing signal strength across all categories for every identified target.
Sector-level context including recent deal comps, buyer activity, and valuation benchmarks.
Thematic groupings of targets by signal pattern - distress cluster, transition cluster, timing cluster.
Prioritized outreach recommendations with suggested approach strategy and timing for each target.
Presentation-ready report formatted for IC decks, partnership meetings, and deal team distribution.
Start from anywhere.
Whether you’re exploring a new sector, refining a thesis, diligencing a known target, or scoring a bulk list - the engine adapts to your workflow.
Industry + Geography
Define a sector and region. We scan the full universe for off-market signals - ideal for building new pipeline in unfamiliar markets.
Target Profile
Describe your ideal acquisition: revenue range, EBITDA, employee count, characteristics. We find companies matching that profile showing sell signals.
Known Company
Already have a target in mind? We run a deep signal scan on a specific entity to quantify off-market likelihood and optimal approach timing.
Batch Mode
Upload a CSV of companies or domains. We score the entire list in parallel and return a ranked, prioritized pipeline with full signal detail.
Find your next deal before the market does.
Define your criteria, pick an input mode, and let the signal engine do the rest. Scored targets, ranked pipeline, and an action plan - delivered in minutes.