Signals, events and anomalies
An event is a dated fact. A signal is a detector's reading of events that says something may matter now, with who should care and why. An anomaly is a value or pattern that stands out against comparable records. Signals and anomalies are where to look, never conclusions.
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From source to signal
- A source is read (a filing, a loan tape, board minutes, an announcement).
- Its facts become dated events on the right records (a mark moved 5 points, an advisor's registration ended).
- A detector reads the events and, when its rule fires, writes a signal card: who should care, why, what changed, the exposure, and what to do next.
- The card is ranked by a stated sum of dimensions shown beside it, and marked New, Intensified, Resolved, Scheduled or Observed.
Signals that exist today
- Private credit: a tranche marked down 5 points or more, a markdown intensified, PIK added or increased, a maturity inside 12 months, a sponsor and lender relationship.
- Real estate debt: a loan maturing inside 12 months, a subsidy contract expiring, a transfer to special servicing.
- RIA: team lift-outs, AUM changes, advisor moves, succession filings, firms forming.
- Private equity: platform acquisitions and add-ons, Form D filings, new SEC advisers.
- Allocators: commitments made, re-ups, consultant changes, searches opened and closed, policy target changes.
- Family offices: liquidity events, direct investments, new vehicles, new CIO and investment hires.
Anomalies
RIA ADV anomalies are reported values and filing-to-filing changes that stand out against comparable advisers (static outliers, changes between filings, combinations, and data quality), shown with the peer median, the percentile and the filing behind each. DFX's wider anomaly findings are joined patterns no single source shows, published with the falsifier.
What to infer, and what not to
- A signal says look here now. It does not say what a person or firm will do.
- A forward pattern under test is labelled as tested; only a validated one states a rate.
- An absent signal does not mean nothing is happening; it means no source DFX reads has shown it yet.
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Related
- Confidence, evidence and scoresDFX states how it knows each thing rather than hiding it in one number: an evidence tier, a match basis, and a stated breakdown for any score. A candidate or inference is labelled as one.
- Follow what is moving across every marketThe Intelligence feed in the rail holds Top signals, What changed, What comes next and Trends. Top signals opens DFX Intelligence, the newsroom: the day's stories across every market, The DFX Briefing and the archive. Every signal, unranked and uncapped, is on All intelligence. Not signed in, the same pages sit under Signals on the Data Factory bar.
- Dates and freshnessEvery event has a date and says what kind: Occurred (the date the source states), Scheduled or Was due (a contractual date), or First seen by DFX when the source gives none. Each market page shows how fresh its sources are.
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