Confidence, evidence and scores
DFX states how it knows each thing rather than hiding it in one number: an evidence tier, a match basis, and a stated breakdown for any score. A candidate or inference is labelled as one.
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- Search hits carry a trust tier: sworn (filed under oath with a regulator), verified, observed, thin, unverified, or shell.
- Ask DFX rows carry an evidence tier: Observed, Current signal, Emerging indicator (not a prediction), or Validated forecast.
- Family office facts are marked Verified, Strongly supported, Inferred or Estimated. Strategy labels use candidate, probable and confirmed.
- Scores (Research, Transition, Dealability, Why-now) show what they are made of next to the number. A score is a reason to look, not a verdict.
- Signal pages show Confidence as a percentage, Historical lift against the base rate, and the falsifier: what would make the reading wrong.
- Profiles mark each fact: Verified (stated in a filing or by the subject), Calculated (computed by DFX from verified records), Inferred (DFX's reading of indirect evidence), Claimed (one source, not corroborated), Historical (was true, not known to be true now) and Under review (disputed or awaiting a correction).
How accurate is DFX?
A fact is as accurate as the filing it came from, and DFX shows you that filing. Joins between records and derived figures are where error can enter, which is why each states its basis. If something is wrong, report it and it is checked by a person.
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Related
- See who owns, funds or advises a firmA profile opens with a Research goal: pick one (Raise capital, Find an introduction, Find decision makers, Identify lenders and more) and the page reorders itself around that question. Relationship intelligence shows every connection as a Network, a Timeline and a Table, and every fact has its Sources one click away.
- Signals, events and anomaliesAn event is a dated fact. A signal is a detector's reading of events that says something may matter now, with who should care and why. An anomaly is a value or pattern that stands out against comparable records. Signals and anomalies are where to look, never conclusions.
- Fix something wrong on a profilePress Suggest a correction under the profile's name. Say what is wrong and where the right value is published. A person checks it against the source; nothing is changed automatically.
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