Confidence, evidence and scores
DFX states how it knows each thing rather than hiding it in one number: an evidence tier, a match basis, and a stated breakdown for any score. A candidate or inference is labelled as one.
- Search hits carry a trust tier: sworn (filed under oath with a regulator), verified, observed, thin, unverified, or shell.
- Ask DFX rows carry an evidence tier: Observed, Current signal, Emerging indicator (not a prediction), or Validated forecast.
- Family office facts are marked Verified, Strongly supported, Inferred or Estimated. Strategy labels use candidate, probable and confirmed.
- Scores (Research, Transition, Dealability, Why-now) show what they are made of next to the number. A score is a reason to look, not a verdict.
- Signal pages show Confidence as a percentage, Historical lift against the base rate, and the falsifier: what would make the reading wrong.
How accurate is DFX?
A fact is as accurate as the filing it came from, and DFX shows you that filing. Joins between records and derived figures are where error can enter, which is why each states its basis. If something is wrong, report it and it is checked by a person.
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Related
- Reading a record pageA record opens with what matters now, then its facts, relationships, dated events and provenance. Sections are titled as questions or plain labels, and every figure carries its source and date.
- Signals, events and anomaliesAn event is a dated fact. A signal is a detector's reading of events that says something may matter now, with who should care and why. An anomaly is a value or pattern that stands out against comparable records. Signals and anomalies are where to look, never conclusions.
- Reporting incorrect informationUse Report incorrect data (or Correct this record on an independent sponsor record). Say which record, what is wrong and, if you can, the source that shows the right value. A person checks it; nothing is changed automatically.
Still stuck?
The support chat knows the page you are on and your plan, or write to a person.