What comes next in private credit

What already happened is on what changed: last quarter’s marks, non-accruals and new lenders, which is the evidence under these lists.

Borrowers whose lenders are marking them down (123) Emerging indicator

Under review: compared with borrowers already marked as low, the drop itself added little (1.2 times), so this is shown as an early indicator until it is re-measured.

Borrower	Sponsor	Mark on cost	Reading	Next maturity	What is at stake
Pluralsight, LLC	Vista Equity Partners Management, LLC	56c to 41c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Aug 1, 2029	$129M funded; 12 lenders; 2 of the sponsor's borrowers firing
Cornerstone OnDemand, Inc	Vector Capital Management, L.P.	74c to 63c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Oct 1, 2026	$664M funded; 10 lenders
Cloudera, Inc	Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, LLC	89c to 71c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Oct 8, 2028	$95.7M funded; 6 lenders; largest holder 70% of cost; 2 of the sponsor's borrowers firing
C•••• S••••••• G••••• I••	V•••• E••••• P••••••• M••••••••• L••	95c to 87c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Mar 1, 2029	$224M funded; 9 lenders; 2 of the sponsor's borrowers firing
A••••••• P••••••• M••••••••• I••	A•• Q• A••••••• L••	89c to 73c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Feb 1, 2028	$143M funded; 7 lenders
P•••••••• I••••••••• L••	M••••••• U• A••••••• L••• • R•••••• A••••••••• L••	49c to 34c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Mar 28, 2030	$19.1M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 78% of cost
V••••••• B•••• H•••••••• L••	Q••••••• C•••••• P••••••• M••••••••• L••	74c to 52c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Mar 18, 2027	$61.0M funded; 4 lenders
A•••••••• L••	G••••••• P•••• C•••••• L••	97c to 91c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Jun 1, 2029	$158M funded; 13 lenders
M•••••••• I••	unattributed	62c to 51c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Oct 1, 2028	$1.4B funded; 6 lenders; largest holder 61% of cost
K••••• I••	unattributed	89c to 69c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Mar 20, 2030	$540M funded; 14 lenders
F•••••• F••• P•••••••• L••	I•• G•••• I••••••••• M••••••• L•• • K••••• ••• C•••••• L•	102c to 86c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Oct 1, 2030	$39.0M funded; 4 lenders; largest holder 72% of cost
C••••• H••••• S••••••••• I••	N•• M••••••• C••••••• L••	85c to 13c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Jul 1, 2029	$16.1M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 90% of cost
B•••• I••••••••• S••••••• I••	C••••••• D••••••• • R•••• L••	94c to 84c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Aug 1, 2030	$19.7M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 77% of cost; 2 of the sponsor's borrowers firing
P•••••• I••••••• L••	E•••••••• P•••••••	86c to 80c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Oct 1, 2027	$88.4M funded; 6 lenders
N•••••• D•••••• H••••••• G••••• I••	S•••• C•••••• G••••• L••	75c to 61c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Apr 30, 2029	$10.9M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 90% of cost
A•••••• T••••••••• I••	L••••• C•••••• P•••••••	77c to 60c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Dec 31, 2028	$20.3M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 64% of cost
T•••••••• I•••••••• H•••••••• L••	unattributed	98c to 91c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Jun 1, 2032	$627M funded; 9 lenders; largest holder 59% of cost
T•• S•••• S••••• L••	L•••••• G•••• • P•••••••• L•••	99c to 77c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Oct 1, 2029	$39.1M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 51% of cost
C••••••• B••••• I••	C•••• S••••• C••••••	99c to 87c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Jul 14, 2027	$109M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 83% of cost
L• • S• M••••••••• A••••••••• L••	T•• S••••••• G••••• L•••	96c to 85c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Sep 1, 2027	$148M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 90% of cost
C•••••• P••••• L••	unattributed	72c to 58c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Jul 1, 2029	$79.7M funded; 5 lenders
P••••••• S•••••••• I••	unattributed	70c to 54c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Jun 1, 2029	$61.5M funded; 9 lenders
H••••••• M•••••• H••••••• C••••••	A••• P••••••• I•• L••	86c to 80c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Apr 1, 2029	$49.5M funded; 7 lenders
S••••• S•••••••• I••	unattributed	75c to 68c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Dec 1, 2027	$117M funded; 5 lenders; largest holder 83% of cost
S•••••••• I••	E•• P••••••• A•	96c to 89c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Apr 16, 2029	$107M funded; 6 lenders
V•••• M•••••• H•••••••• I••	J•• P••••••• L••	100c to 95c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Oct 29, 2031	$30.5M funded; 4 lenders
U• I•••• S••• B••••• L••	unattributed	75c to 32c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Jun 13, 2028	$62.9M funded; 3 lenders; largest holder 63% of cost
M••••••• H•••••••• L••	unattributed	91c to 77c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Aug 19, 2027	$76.3M funded; 5 lenders; largest holder 83% of cost
D••••••• B••• P••••• L••	unattributed	16c to 10c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Sep 1, 2033	$67.1M funded; 3 lenders; largest holder 74% of cost
N••••• T•••• L••••••	unattributed	89c to 79c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Nov 13, 2028	$707M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 95% of cost
K••••••• I••	unattributed	89c to 78c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Jul 1, 2032	$101M funded; 8 lenders
A•••••••	unattributed	31c to 19c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026		$39.9M funded; 3 lenders; largest holder 72% of cost
A•• H•••• L••	unattributed	94c to 89c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	May 1, 2030	$97.3M funded; 12 lenders
L•••••• M•••• B••	unattributed	63c to 6c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Feb 1, 2027	$142M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 80% of cost
K••••••• I••••••••• L••	unattributed	45c to 39c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Sep 30, 2026	$25.3M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 67% of cost
C•••• G•••••• I••	unattributed	78c to 66c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Dec 6, 2029	$262M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 70% of cost
A••••••• S••••• C••••••	unattributed	81c to 44c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Jul 20, 2027	$30.4M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 94% of cost
A••••••• N•••• L••	G•••• C••••••	100c to 87c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Mar 28, 2028	$11.1M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 78% of cost
K•••••• P••••••••• L••	unattributed	57c to 31c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Nov 10, 2026	$31.4M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 63% of cost
F•••••••• S••••••• I••••••••• H••••••• I••	unattributed	76c to 47c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Dec 1, 2028	$36.3M funded; 5 lenders
J•• E••••••••• • M••••••••• L••	unattributed	100c to 21c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Jun 20, 2030	$39.6M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 94% of cost
B•• H••••••• I• C•••	unattributed	83c to 69c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026		$94.2M funded; 6 lenders
P•••••• C•••••• I••	unattributed	82c to 68c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Jun 1, 2029	$101M funded; 7 lenders
I••••• S•••••••• I••	unattributed	39c to 20c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Jun 1, 2029	$11.8M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 66% of cost
P•••••••• G••••• S•••••••• I••	unattributed	65c to 57c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Dec 31, 2028	$136M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 63% of cost
D•••••• L••	unattributed	51c to 39c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Jul 17, 2028	$17.9M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 72% of cost
C••••••••• B••••• I••	unattributed	91c to 86c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Jul 1, 2028	$200M funded; 10 lenders
B•• M••••••• I••	unattributed	100c to 89c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Mar 1, 2032	$306M funded; 7 lenders
A•• U•••••• H•••••••• I••	unattributed	59c to 54c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Sep 28, 2029	$34.6M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 85% of cost
F•••• C••••• I••	unattributed	74c to 67c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Mar 2, 2028	$46.0M funded; 3 lenders; largest holder 61% of cost
A••• P•• H•••••••• I••	unattributed	66c to 58c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Oct 5, 2026	$46.5M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 91% of cost
A••••••• R••••••••• H•••••••• L••	unattributed	100c to 81c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Jul 24, 2030	$61.2M funded; 5 lenders; largest holder 58% of cost
H••••• P•••••••• I••	unattributed	84c to 79c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Apr 9, 2029	$61.6M funded; 3 lenders; largest holder 63% of cost
H•••	unattributed	84c to 78c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026		$107M funded; 4 lenders
A••• L••	unattributed	69c to 51c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Sep 1, 2026	$88.3M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 79% of cost
P•••••••• S••••••• I•••••••••	unattributed	74c to 69c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026		$90.2M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 88% of cost
C••••••• I••	unattributed	85c to 79c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Aug 1, 2028	$36.5M funded; 4 lenders
S•••• P••••••••• L••	unattributed	91c to 86c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Jun 30, 2027	$41.8M funded; 5 lenders
E•••• I••••••••• I•• L••	unattributed	96c to 88c	fell this quarter quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Mar 15, 2027	$52.0M funded; 4 lenders; largest holder 54% of cost
A•••••• H•••••••• I••	unattributed	73c to 57c	fell again quarter ending Jun 30, 2026	Dec 1, 2028	$67.7M funded; 2 lenders; largest holder 60% of cost

The 60 with the most at stake of 123.

Debt due inside eighteen months on borrowers paying in kind (38) Forward signal Elevated

Borrowers like these reached non-accrual within a year at 2.6 times the rate of borrowers with the same marks. That is what the pattern did across the tape, not a prediction about any one borrower.

Borrowers with term debt maturing inside eighteen months that are already paying some interest in kind. Most have no markdown yet, so this reaches credits the list above does not. A holding company that pays in kind by design is marked, and reads weaker.

Borrower	Due inside 18 months	Reading	Why now
VRC Companies, LLC	$271M	Highly elevated lenders still mark it near par	Its earliest funded term debt matures on 2027-06-29, 12 months after the 2026-06-30 filings: $270.7M of $276M term debt falls due inside 18 months and must be refinanced or extended.
Hg Saturn Luchaco Limited	$132M	Elevated lenders still mark it near par	Its earliest funded term debt matures on 2027-03-01, 8 months after the 2026-06-30 filings: $132.2M of $132M term debt falls due inside 18 months and must be refinanced or extended.
ShiftKey, LLC	$88.6M	Elevated lenders still mark it near par	Its earliest funded term debt matures on 2027-06-21, 12 months after the 2026-06-30 filings: $88.6M of $89M term debt falls due inside 18 months and must be refinanced or extended.
P•••••• I••••••• L••	$88.4M	Elevated	••• Locked
C•• M••••••••• L••	$80.6M	Elevated	••• Locked
A••••••• A•••••• H•••••••• L••	$73.6M	Elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
A•• T••••• L••	$60.5M	Highly elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
L••••• L••• O•••• L••	$56.4M	Elevated	••• Locked
I•••••• L••••••••• F•••••• S•• R••	$53.1M	Elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
A••• S••••••• I••	$51.2M	Elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
H••••• L••	$51.1M	Elevated	••• Locked
B•••••••• I••••••••• D••••••••• I••	$47.9M	Highly elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
L••• O•••• L••	$43.3M	Elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
S•••• P••••••••• L••	$40.4M	Elevated	••• Locked
A••••• S••••• • E••••••••• I••	$37.0M	Elevated	••• Locked
A••••••• W•• T••••••••• H•••••• C••••••	$36.6M	Highly elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
H••••• a•• S••••••• H••••• H•••••• L••	$36.3M	Elevated	••• Locked
A••••••	$33.3M	Elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
I•• C•••	$32.7M	Elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
F••••••••• I••	$31.4M	Elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
C•• G••••• I••	$30.7M	Elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
E••••••••• F••••••• C••••••• L••	$29.5M	Highly elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
L•••• L••••••• I••	$26.1M	Elevated	••• Locked
E•••••• H•••••••• I••	$24.4M	Highly elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
L••• C••••••••• I••	$21.6M	Highly elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
A•••••••• L••	$21.3M	Elevated	••• Locked
D••••• A••••••••• I••	$14.9M	Highly elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
A••••••• T•••••• R••••• G••••• L••	$14.5M	Elevated	••• Locked
C••• H••••• H••••••• C•••	$14.4M	Elevated	••• Locked
L••••••• L•••••• H•••••••• L••	$13.6M	Elevated	••• Locked
V••••••• B••••• L••	$13.3M	Highly elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
O•• A••••••••• I••	$12.6M	Elevated	••• Locked
S•••• L••• I••	$10.5M	Elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
P•••••• L••	$7.4M	Highly elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
E••••••• U••••••• H•••••••• L••	$5.3M	Highly elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
B••••••• I••••••••• •• L••	$4.5M	Elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked
H••• C••• A••••••••• L••	$3.0M	Elevated	••• Locked
N•••• H•••••• L••	$2.0M	Highly elevated lenders still mark it near par	••• Locked

Debt coming due in the next twelve months Reported

Facilities BDCs hold with a stated maturity inside a year, largest first. These are dates in the lenders’ own filings, not a forecast: each is a refinancing, an extension or a repayment that has to happen, and the mark beside it says how the lenders see it now.

Matures	Facility	Sponsor	Held	On cost	BDCs
Mar 31, 2027	National Property REIT Corp first lien term loan first lien	unattributed	at least $877M	100c	1
Nov 1, 2026	Acquia Inc first lien term loan first lien	unattributed	at least $385M	97c	10
Aug 19, 2027	Material Holdings, LLC other lien unstated	unattributed	at least $350M	75c	2
Jul 1, 2027	Z•••• H•••••• I•• first lien term loan first lien	unattributed	at least $312M	99c	10
Sep 13, 2027	G•• C••••••••• B••••• L•• delayed draw term loan lien unstated	unattributed	at least $263M	98c	2
Jul 21, 2027	M•• I••••••••• H•••••••• L•• first lien term loan first lien	unattributed	at least $245M	98c	10
Dec 15, 2026	H•••••••• H••• S•••••••• I•• first lien term loan first lien	Sponsor not established · possible: T•• L• (a company of this name is on the sponsor's portfolio page)	at least $234M	98c	8
May 3, 2027	G•••••• C•••• G••••• L•• other lien unstated	unattributed	at least $224M	99c	2
Mar 11, 2027	S••••••• P•••••• I•• delayed draw term loan lien unstated	unattributed	at least $220M	99c	2
Aug 4, 2027	C•••••• I••••••••• I•• first lien term loan first lien	unattributed	at least $216M	98c	9
Jul 30, 2027	G••••••••• I•• first lien term loan first lien	Sponsor not established · possible: S••••• C•••••• P••••••• M••••••••• L•• (a company of this name is on the sponsor's portfolio page)	at least $209M	99c	9
Aug 9, 2027	L• L•••• H•••••••• I•• delayed draw term loan lien unstated	unattributed	at least $202M	88c	2
Jun 16, 2027	C••• C•• W••• O••••••••• L•• first lien delayed draw term loan first lien	unattributed	at least $176M	100c	3
Jul 1, 2027	L•••••• M•••• B•• second lien term loan second lien	unattributed	at least $166M	5c	2
Apr 23, 2027	P•••••• P••••• B••••• L•• first lien term loan first lien	Sponsor not established · possible: F•••••••• P••••••• (a company of this name is on the sponsor's portfolio page)	at least $152M	100c	7
Sep 1, 2027	L• • S• M••••••••• A••••••••• L•• other lien unstated	T•• S••••••• G••••• L••• inferred	at least $148M	85c	2
Jul 14, 2027	C••••••• B••••• I•• other lien unstated	Sponsor not established · possible: C•••• S••••• C•••••• (a company of this name is on the sponsor's portfolio page)	at least $148M	87c	2
May 1, 2027	H••• I•• first lien term loan first lien	unattributed	at least $137M	101c	1
Aug 17, 2027	O••••• G••••• R•••••••• L•• revolver lien unstated	Sponsor not established · possible: H••••• C••••••• L•• (a company of this name is on the sponsor's portfolio page)	at least $133M	100c	2
Dec 31, 2026	A• H••••• B••••• I•• first lien term loan first lien	Sponsor not established · possible: A••••••• M••••••••• H••••••• L• (a company of this name is on the sponsor's portfolio page)	at least $126M	98c	2
May 3, 2027	E•• S••••••••• I•• first lien term loan first lien	unattributed	at least $123M	99c	4
Jun 21, 2027	I•• H••••••• G••••• L•• first lien term loan first lien	unattributed	at least $123M	102c	1
Dec 29, 2026	W•••••• A••••••••• H•••••••• I•• other lien unstated	unattributed	at least $123M	78c	2
Jul 31, 2027	X••••• C••••••••• first lien term loan first lien	unattributed	at least $120M	94c	7
Apr 1, 2027	I••••••• T•••••••• G•••• L•• first lien term loan first lien	unattributed	at least $114M	99c	3

The 25 largest of 1,089 facilities maturing inside a year. Every maturity by quarter

The outcomes these lists are graded against Reported

2,089 recorded outcomes across private credit and securitized real estate loans: 1,136 placed on non-accrual, 323 mark collapsed, 68 bankruptcy filing, 521 special servicing, 31 loan workout, 10 distress reported. Only outcomes read from a filing or a servicer report at medium or high confidence are kept, and a later reading replaces an earlier one.

Date	Outcome	Subject	Amount	Source
Sep 14, 2026 petition date	Bankruptcy filing	Screening Services Group, LLCborrower	$451,600	Court and docket records
Sep 1, 2026 petition date	Bankruptcy filing	McNeill Properties V, LLCborrower	$20.5M	Court and docket records
Aug 27, 2026 petition date	Bankruptcy filing	BioXcel Therapeutics, Incborrower	$236M	Court and docket records
Aug 11, 2026 inferred window	Loan workout	9• H•••••• J••••• C••• N•CMBS loan	n/a	Securitised loan reporting
Aug 11, 2026 inferred window	Loan workout	1••• T•••• A•••••• N•• Y••• N•CMBS loan	n/a	Securitised loan reporting
Aug 11, 2026 inferred window	Loan workout	D••••••••• B••••••• M•••••• B••••••• C•CMBS loan	n/a	Securitised loan reporting
Aug 11, 2026 inferred window	Loan workout	4••• S•••• A•••••• S•••••• L•• A•••••• C•CMBS loan	n/a	Securitised loan reporting
Aug 11, 2026 inferred window	Loan workout	D••••••••• B••••••• M•••••• B••••••• C•CMBS loan	n/a	Securitised loan reporting
Aug 11, 2026 inferred window	Loan workout	9• H•••••• J••••• C••• N•CMBS loan	n/a	Securitised loan reporting
Aug 11, 2026 inferred window	Loan workout	T•••• I••••••••• • B••••••• C•••••• R•••••••• N•CMBS loan	n/a	Securitised loan reporting
Aug 11, 2026 inferred window	Loan workout	7• B•••• S•••••• N•• Y••• N•CMBS loan	n/a	Securitised loan reporting
Aug 11, 2026 inferred window	Loan workout	W•••••••• P•••• A••••••••• J•••••• M•CMBS loan	n/a	Securitised loan reporting

The 12 most recent, newest first.

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