DFX Intelligence

RIA Intelligence

Registered investment advisers, the advisors registered through them, the capital they report, the private vehicles they run and the people who own them, as a graph with a filing date behind every number. RAUM is what the adviser filed, a move is two registration dates, and a class is a rule you can read.

Former SEC-registered adviser

Probabilities Fund Management, LLC

Former SEC-registered adviserBellevue, WashingtonCRD 144313SEC 801-77947IAPD
Latest filing Mar 29, 2023
First filing on the tape Apr 5, 2013 · 23 filings
RAUM
$18.9M
reported, Item 5.F
Discretionary
100%
of RAUM
Private clients
41%
$7.7M individuals and HNW
Advisors
0
registered through the firm on IAPD
RAUM per advisor
n/a
derived; firm RAUM over IAPD count
Employees
3
3 advisory (5.B.1)
Offices
0
beyond the principal office
Private funds
0
reported on Schedule D
History
23 filings and snapshots on the tape
RAUM$18.9M as of Mar 29, 2023
Feb 19, 2014$90.0M then
HNW client RAUM$7.4M as of Mar 29, 2023
Mar 16, 2018$67.1M then
State-registered IARs (5.B.3)3 as of Mar 29, 2023
Feb 19, 20143 then
Employees (5.A)3 as of Mar 29, 2023
Feb 19, 20144 then
Private funds: no history
RAUM -63% over the last fiscal year-39% a year over threeIARs 3 to 3
Practice profile
derived from the filing of Mar 29, 2023; every figure names its basis
RAUM per advisor
$6.3MderivedRAUM over IAPD advisors; not a book size
Clients per advisor
unknownderivedindividual and HNW clients (5.D) over advisors
Average HNW client
unknownderivedHNW RAUM over HNW clients
Average account
$1.3MderivedRAUM over accounts (5.F.2.f)
Discretionary
100%derivedof RAUM
Institutional
0.3%derivedpensions, charities, corporations, government, insurance, banks, other advisers
Employees per advisor
1.0derivedItem 5.A over advisors
Advisors per office
3.0derived1 offices incl. principal (1.F.5)
RAUM growth, one year
-63%derivedbetween the last two annual amendments
Advisor growth, one year
+0.0%derivedItem 5.B.3 between annual amendments
Client growth, one year
unknownderived
Compensation
percentage of assets, performance-basedreportedItem 5.E
Advisory activities
portfolio management for individuals, portfolio management for investment companiesreportedItem 5.G
Ownership
no PE, bank or public-company owner found on Schedule Aderived
Advisor book size
not public; not estimatedreported
Also answered yes on Form ADV
  • buys or sells securities as principal to or from clients (8.A.2)
  • has discretionary authority over which securities are bought or sold (8.C.1)
  • receives research or other products from a broker-dealer, soft dollars (8.E)
  • compensates persons for client referrals (8.G.1)
  • compensates non-employees for client referrals (8.G.2)
Where the RAUM sits
Form ADV Item 5.D, latest filing
  • Investment companies$9.1M48%
  • High-net-worth individuals$7.4M39%
  • Corporations and businesses$2.0M11%
  • Individuals$337,0601.8%
  • Pension and profit-sharing plans$59,2040.3%
Individual clients
7reported
HNW clients
n/areported
Pension plan clients
n/areported
Charitable clients
n/areported
Accounts
15reported
Financial planning clients
n/areported
Wrap fee programs
noreported
Custody of client assets
noreported
Compensation
% of AUM, performancereported
Class basis
absent from the latest SEC rosterderived
Advisors registered through the firm
0 on IAPD today, longest tenure first
No representative is registered through this CRD on IAPD.
Advisor movement
Left, latest
Every departureEvery arrival
Private funds
1 reported on Schedule D 7.B.(1)
FundTypeGross assetsOwnersFirst reported
Probabilities Fund, LPno longer reportedHedge Fund$7.7M17Apr 5, 2013
Owners and control persons
Schedule A and B, latest filing
  • Brian Joseph Childrey · Managing Membercontrol
    since 04/2007 · owns 75% or more
  • Sidney Hardee · Chief Compliance Officercontrol
    since 01/2022 · owns less than 5%
  • Burns Robert Ausdal · Owner
    since 03/2017 · owns less than 5%
  • Reed W. Foster · Owner
    since 03/2017 · owns less than 5%
  • Dudley Allen Shepard · Owner
    since 03/2017 · owns less than 5%
Related persons
Schedule D 7.A
No related person reported.
Office movement
IAPD branch city; joins and departures in 12 months
OfficeAdvisorsJoinedLeftTeams outForming
San Diego, Ca000
Offices
Schedule D 1.F, the 25 largest
No branch office listed.
What changed
consecutive filings, newest first
  • Accounts · 23 to 15
    Apr 1, 2022 to Mar 29, 2023
  • Discretionary RAUM · $50.5M to $18.9M
    Apr 1, 2022 to Mar 29, 2023
  • HNW RAUM · $7.3M to $7.4M
    Apr 1, 2022 to Mar 29, 2023
  • Individual RAUM · $630,353 to $337,060
    Apr 1, 2022 to Mar 29, 2023
  • RAUM · $50.5M to $18.9M
    Apr 1, 2022 to Mar 29, 2023
  • Accounts · 25 to 23
    Oct 26, 2021 to Apr 1, 2022
  • Advisory employees · 4 to 3
    Oct 26, 2021 to Apr 1, 2022
  • Employees · 4 to 3
    Oct 26, 2021 to Apr 1, 2022
  • HQ city · WHITE PLAINS to BELLEVUE
    Oct 26, 2021 to Apr 1, 2022
  • HQ state · NY to WA
    Oct 26, 2021 to Apr 1, 2022
  • State-registered IARs · 2 to 3
    Oct 26, 2021 to Apr 1, 2022
  • Other offices · 1 to 0
    Oct 26, 2021 to Apr 1, 2022
  • Discretionary RAUM · $57.3M to $50.5M
    Oct 26, 2021 to Apr 1, 2022
  • HNW RAUM · $6.6M to $7.3M
    Oct 26, 2021 to Apr 1, 2022
  • Individual RAUM · $291,634 to $630,353
    Oct 26, 2021 to Apr 1, 2022
  • Pension RAUM · $63,538 to $59,204
    Oct 26, 2021 to Apr 1, 2022
  • RAUM · $57.3M to $50.5M
    Oct 26, 2021 to Apr 1, 2022
  • Accounts · 37 to 25
    Jun 26, 2020 to Mar 30, 2021
  • Corporate clients · 2.0 to unset
    Jun 26, 2020 to Mar 30, 2021
  • HNW clients · 3.0 to unset
    Jun 26, 2020 to Mar 30, 2021
  • Individual clients · 10 to 7
    Jun 26, 2020 to Mar 30, 2021
  • Pension plan clients · 2.0 to unset
    Jun 26, 2020 to Mar 30, 2021
  • Pooled vehicle clients · 2.0 to unset
    Jun 26, 2020 to Mar 30, 2021
  • Other offices · 0 to 1
    Jun 26, 2020 to Mar 30, 2021
  • Discretionary RAUM · $84.0M to $57.3M
    Jun 26, 2020 to Mar 30, 2021
  • HNW RAUM · $7.4M to $6.6M
    Jun 26, 2020 to Mar 30, 2021
  • Individual RAUM · $1.3M to $291,634
    Jun 26, 2020 to Mar 30, 2021
  • Pension RAUM · $67,679 to $63,538
    Jun 26, 2020 to Mar 30, 2021
  • Pooled vehicle RAUM · 2930704.0 to unset
    Jun 26, 2020 to Mar 30, 2021
  • RAUM · $84.0M to $57.3M
    Jun 26, 2020 to Mar 30, 2021
  • Succession · true to false
    Apr 20, 2020 to Jun 26, 2020
  • Succession · false to true
    Mar 30, 2020 to Apr 20, 2020
  • Accounts · 98 to 37
    Mar 15, 2019 to Mar 30, 2020
  • Advisory employees · 3 to 4
    Mar 15, 2019 to Mar 30, 2020
  • HNW clients · 23 to 3
    Mar 15, 2019 to Mar 30, 2020
  • Individual clients · 67 to 10
    Mar 15, 2019 to Mar 30, 2020
  • Pension plan clients · 1 to 2
    Mar 15, 2019 to Mar 30, 2020
  • Employees · 5 to 4
    Mar 15, 2019 to Mar 30, 2020
  • State-registered IARs · 3 to 2
    Mar 15, 2019 to Mar 30, 2020
  • Discretionary RAUM · $142M to $84.0M
    Mar 15, 2019 to Mar 30, 2020
Signals
8 dated events
  • Joseph Brian Childrey left Probabilities Fund Management, Llc for Ausdal Financial Partners, Inc. (registered 2019-05-30)
    Nov 3, 2023 · Advisor changed firm · fact
  • Jonathan Lesley Chatfield left Probabilities Fund Management, Llc for Lm Advisors Llc (registered 2023-03-27)
    Jan 19, 2023 · Advisor changed firm · fact
  • Christopher Mistal (Chief Compliance Officer) no longer on Schedule A of Probabilities Fund Management, Llc (listed 2021-10-26, absent 2022-04-01)
    Apr 1, 2022 · Control person left · inference
  • Sidney Hardee (Chief Compliance Officer) appeared on Schedule A of Probabilities Fund Management, Llc
    Apr 1, 2022 · Control person joined · fact
  • Probabilities Fund Management, Llc reported succeeding to the business of Another Adviser (Form ADV Item 4)
    Apr 20, 2020 · Succession (Item 4) · fact
  • Christopher Mistal (Chief Compliance Officer) appeared on Schedule A of Probabilities Fund Management, Llc
    Mar 15, 2019 · Control person joined · fact
  • Lesley Jonathan Chatfield (Chief Compliance Officer) no longer on Schedule A of Probabilities Fund Management, Llc (listed 2018-03-27, absent 2019-03-15)
    Mar 15, 2019 · Control person left · inference
  • Probabilities Fund Management, Llc filed its initial SEC registration (Form ADV)
    Apr 5, 2013 · First SEC registration · fact
Across DFX
shared identifiers only, never a name match
No identifier-backed link to the venture, private equity, family office or sponsor graphs.
Provenance
Form ADV
SEC filing data 2011 to 2024 and the monthly roster 2025 onreportedadviserinfo.sec.gov
Advisors
IAPD individual compilation feed, dailyreportedadviserinfo.sec.gov
Class
Former SEC-registered adviserderiveda rule over Items 5.D and 7.A
RAUM per advisor
n/aderivedfirm RAUM over the IAPD count; not a book size
Loaded
Sep 14, 2026